Metric · Glossary
Permanence Risk
Also: carbon permanence, permanence label
Definition
A durability label on carbon-sequestration claims. EcoIntel reports it per parcel as LOW / MODERATE / HIGH / CRITICAL based on fire, drought, pest, management-change and structural risk.
Permanence risk is a durability label on any carbon-sequestration claim. It answers the question: how robust is this carbon under realistic future conditions?
A claim that a parcel has sequestered 50 tonnes of CO₂ is incomplete on its own. Under what conditions will that carbon stay sequestered? For how long? Under what risks?
EcoIntel reports permanence risk per parcel on a four-level scale:
- LOW: minimal risk under realistic future conditions; the carbon is durable.
- MODERATE: known risk factors present but manageable; carbon is durable with active stewardship.
- HIGH: significant risk factors converging; the durability of the sequestration is in question without active intervention.
- CRITICAL: high probability of carbon loss under realistic scenarios; the claim should not be presented as durable.
The label considers:
- Fire risk: climate-driven (heat, drought, fuel load) and management-related.
- Drought-mortality risk: multi-year vegetation collapse pattern.
- Pest and disease risk: species-specific (e.g. bark beetle on conifer monocultures).
- Management-change risk: succession, tenancy, ownership transitions that could see the management change.
- Structural risk: is the species/system combination viable long-term in this climate?
A 30-year forward projection is meaningless without it. EcoIntel includes the permanence-risk label on every parcel’s projection so the audience (buyer, certifier, regulator, lender) can size the durability of the claim, not just its magnitude.