Diagnostic Confidence

Diagnostic confidence is the Low / Moderate / High label on the overall diagnosis EcoIntel produces for a field, not on individual scores, but on the diagnostic story the report tells.

It is distinct from the Confidence Label, which sits on individual numbers (the LHS, the process-index scores). A field can have HIGH confidence on its scores but MODERATE diagnostic confidence, meaning the numbers are reliable but the story they tell is unusually ambiguous.

Diagnostic confidence reflects:

• Gap-pattern clarity: how cleanly the field fits one of the eight characteristic patterns versus sitting between two or three.
• Limiting-indicator separation: how strongly the limiting indicator stands out above the others, versus a field where two or three indicators are tied at the bottom.
• Cascade-order identification: whether the BROWN -> BLUE -> GREEN -> BLACK stage that needs work is clearly the next one, versus a field that needs work in two stages simultaneously.
• Cross-check agreement: whether the carbon-check references converge on a coherent picture or disagree among themselves.

How to read it:

• HIGH: the diagnosis supports decisive action. The story is clear; the first-move recommendation is well-anchored.
• MODERATE: proceed, with verification. A short site visit or a low-cost test of the first-move recommendation is appropriate before committing significant resources.
• LOW: the diagnosis is uncertain. The field is unusual or transitional; a ground visit or sample-and-test before any significant intervention is essential.

Both Confidence Labels, score and diagnostic, appear on every report card so the reader can size both kinds of uncertainty independently.